Grain Market Update - Canola (May 2025)

Article provided by : Michael Jones, Grain Focus, Young

The Australian canola market has had a roller-coaster ride since harvest. It reached a high of $810 PKE in January before plunging to a low of $715 PKE in March. Even though there have been large swings in the canola market during the period, prices have remained in the range they have been in since November. There is very little canola left unsold in growers’ hands.

Looking forward to new crop canola pricing, the picture is pleasing, as 2025/26 season canola has been bid at around $810/mt port Kembla recently. That is a Decile 8 when looking at the 5-year price range.

Upside potential

  • In Canada, canola prices continue to climb due to forecast low stock levels and strong export demand. As the world’s largest producer, Canada is facing tighter supplies this season, combined with high demand and ongoing trade issues. Although European rapeseed prices haven’t followed the Canadian market directly up, the Canadian market situation does provide support for prices in the EU, which is Australia’s key customer.

  • Ukraine’s rapeseed crop is planted in Sept/Oct and harvested in July/Aug. A dry sowing period has resulted in a cut back of acres planted to rapeseed this year. A dry season so far hasn’t been ideal for the Ukraine crop, but there is still time for rain to improve crop potential. Ukraine competes with Australian canola in the European market.

Downside potential

  • Europe had a poor rapeseed crop last year as they were hit with overly wet conditions. Production is expected to rebound this year. Crops are off to a promising start so far.

  • Oilseed markets are particularly sensitive to the global economic conditions. As so much vegetable oil goes into the biofuel market, any negative news for economic growth is reflected in oilseed markets. The tariff wars make the picture even less clear for oilseeds. China is the world’s biggest soybean importer, and the US is the second largest soybean exporter. Geopolitics can have a big impact on oilseed markets.

The information contained in this article is given for the purpose of providing general information only.

Farm Management, Cropping, FinanceFred BroughtonRural Management Strategies