Livestock Sale Decisions

The Bureau of Meteorology is predicting a greater than 80% chance of exceeding average rainfall for spring. This in conjunction with the current full profile of soil moisture would indicate that pasture production in spring and leading into summer will be above average. This presents opportunities for some graziers to capitalise on the extra pasture growth, particularly in the context of the very high current livestock prices.

Some strategies which growers could implement are:

• Retain the oldest age group of ewes to rejoin and sell SIL in Autumn, or lamb down if the opportunity presents itself.

• Graziers who traditionally sell store lambs at weaning, could delay sale for 4-8 weeks, as additional liveweight gain is valuable at current prices.

• Finishing lambs rather than selling as stores, utilising forward contracts to mitigate price risk.

Trading stock will be highly risky given the current prices and should only be considered by those who regularly trade and understand the system.

All these strategies of carrying more stock through spring-summer adds significant risk to the business, particularly when basing decisions on medium term weather forecasts. However, a risk vs reward analysis indicates that growers who decide to push their operation and utilise the feed that is expected, could generate significantly greater returns than those who do not.

Wet weather increases the risk of flystrike and Barbers Pole Worm, which may require increased intensity of monitoring throughout high-risk periods and the increased use of insecticides. Increased deaths may also result which would need to be factored in.

Alternatively, if it is drier than predicted, strategies must be put in place to have sufficient fodder on hand to feed extra stock until animals are saleable. Droughtlots are an excellent management tool when supplementary feeding stock, to protect pastures from overgrazing and degradation.