Haymaking in 2020
Most clients have seen a significant post-drought response in crops and pastures. The early break and mild wet winter have led to above average biomass production in pastures and early sown fodder crops intended for hay. The bulk of feed plus the recent high fodder prices may make hay an attractive option.
However, the current season is dramatically different to the previous two, where hay was made without any issues and sold into a strong market regardless of quality. For livestock producers, 2020 may present a valuable opportunity to conserve fodder, but this is more likely to be in the form of silage rather than hay. Those looking to make hay as a cash crop, should consider the following:
Hay:
The outlook is for above average chance of cool, wet conditions throughout spring. Should they eventuate, these conditions combined with high soil moisture and large amounts of biomass, would make drying hay difficult and risky.
As the Dry Matter yield of the crop increases, the nutrition within the plant is diluted, thus reducing the energy and protein content. This is the exact opposite of the very high quality hay made from drought affected crops. In high yielding cereal crops, the energy and protein percentage drops to levels where it is unsuitable for growing livestock, being useful only as roughage or as a supplement for mature livestock, thus limiting potential markets and price.
With large areas of eastern Australia experiencing well above average rainfall, it is expected that there will be a large surplus of fodder during late 2020 and early 2021. Therefore, hay will most likely need to be stored on farm until demand increases. For those with sheds this is a relatively safe bet, but for those planning to store outside in covered stacks, the risk of spoilage and increased wastage is high.
There are a number of factors likely to put downward pressure on the hay price in the short to medium term. The large quantity of hay forecast, the limited number of people supplementary feeding stock, plus the recent falls in the sheep and wool market, will all impact negatively on the hay price. This will have the greatest affect on growers with limited storage options, planning to sell straight out of the paddock.
Although there are risks as outlined above, the fact remains that there is significant biomass in many paddocks, so keeping an open mind is prudent. Should the weather warm up and the soil profile dry out, the opportunity to make hay could present itself. History would suggest, that in time demand will return and those with sheds full of hay will be able to profit.
Alternative options to cutting hay:
Silage is a very useful method of conserving fodder, particularly if it is made well and stored correctly. As silage is made at a higher water content than hay, it requires less curing time and as a result is far less prone to weather damage. The main disadvantage of silage is that there are limited options for the sale of silage due to its high water content, which increases the freight cost per tonne of Dry Matter and it’s limited shelf life once exposed to Oxygen.
Larger livestock operations have the potential to significantly reduce their feed cost in the next drought, by building stores of silage in 2020. For those setup to handle chopped silage, this is the most economical way of storing large quantities of fodder for future droughts. Second to this, is storing square bales of silage underground, which is effective and does not require specialised equipment. Silage which is stored above ground and wrapped in plastic, is expensive and does not store well.
Selling the crop standing can be a very good option, particularly when growers do not have their own hay making equipment. This option reduces risk to the grower, however it also reduces the return as the contractor will require a higher potential return to offset their additional risk. Given the high biomass crops, a low return per tonne could still equate to a respectable return per hectare, so this option should not be dismissed.
If weed populations are not too large, it may be possible to harvest paddocks that were programmed to go to hay. Depending on the crop, they may require spray topping prior to harvest, to limit seed set of weeds. Some growers will harvest crops planned for hay, but cut pasture paddocks, as their livestock have been unable to utilise the feed available.
Pulse paddocks planned for hay, such as vetch and peas, will produce some of the most sought after hay if made well. However many of these crops have suffered from high levels of disease and or water logging stress. These crops will most likely require numerous fungicide applications to keep them free of disease, with many already too far gone. Early sown pulse crops which have nodulated well, may have fixed 25kgN/tonne of Dry Matter. Brown manuring these crops will likely lead to yield benefits in next year’s crop as a result of the residual Nitrogen and stored soil moisture.
Making hay this season is most likely going to present some challenges to growers, not seen in the previous few seasons. The combination of significant risk of weather damage, plus the expected low prices in the near future, may require a re-evaluation of the quantity of hay being made. Considering options such as silage, selling the crop standing, or harvesting for grain, may be necessary to reduce the adverse effects of these risk factors. However, growers with long term relationships with buyers, access to reliable contractors and on-farm storage options, may be in a good position to capitalise on the very high hay yield potential.