Grain Market Update - Canola (October 2019)

The following graph shows the movement in ICE November 2019 Canola Futures price expressed in A$ and the domestic canola price delivered Port Kembla. Also included is the 10 year average ICE November Futures price expressed in A$ and the 10 year average domestic price at Port Kembla.

The domestic price for canola has risen substantially since the beginning of the year with a gain of $95/t. At the same time the ICE Futures price has essentially remained stagnant. At present the ICE November Futures price is A$519/tonne equivalent and the domestic price is $662/tonne delivered port. The resulting basis of A$143/tonne equivalent is A$29/tonne higher than the basis at the same time last year and A$113/t higher than the 10 year average basis for this time of year.

The domestic canola price at present is a Decile 9.9 price, calculated on prices from 2009 to date. This is slightly greater than the same time last year.

A PKE price of $662/tonne represents $624/tonne local depot with freight to port of $38/tonne. This is likely to be above clients Break Even Price at drought adjusted yields.