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Grain Market Update – Canola July 2019

The following graph shows the movement in ICE November 2019 Canola Futures price expressed in A$ and the domestic canola price delivered Port Kembla. Also included is the 10 year average ICE November Futures price expressed in A$ and the 10 year average domestic price at Port Kembla.

The domestic price for canola has risen substantially since the beginning of the year with a gain of $45/t. At the same time the ICE Futures price has trended lower, falling by $30/t.

At present the ICE November Futures price is A$496/tonne equivalent and the domestic price is $613/tonne delivered port. The resulting basis of A$117/tonne equivalent is A$60/tonne higher than the basis at the same time last year and A$93/t higher than the 10 year average basis for this time of year.

The domestic canola price at present is a Decile 9 price, calculated on prices from 2009 to date. This is similar to the same time last year.

A PKE price of $613/tonne represents $575/tonne local depot with freight to port of $38/tonne. This should be well above the average budgeted Break Even Price for clients.