The following graph shows the movement in Chicago (CBOT) December 2015 Wheat Futures price and the 2015/16 APW Multigrade price delivered port.
During July, prices peaked when the APW Multigrade price was $337/tonne port with the (CBOT) December futures price at A$299/tonne equivalent. Although prices were at Decile 9 levels, there was little scope for producers to capitalise on these, as conditions were dry and production uncertain.
Since July the APW Multigrade price has fallen, however there has been significant volatility providing ample opportunity to capture prices above Decile 7 levels.
Making further sales immediately prior to harvest has been somewhat difficult due to concerns over quality. As wheat harvest commences, is it likely that buyers will post strong prices for quality grain given the risk of downgrading in the event of further wet weather.
Currently the CBOT December 2015 Wheat Futures price is A$257/tonne equivalent and the APW Multigrade price is $290/t delivered port, reflecting a positive basis of A$33/tonne.