The following graph shows the movement in Chicago (CBOT) December 2014 Wheat Futures price and the 2014/15 APW Multigrade price delivered port.
Basis has been positive all year, reaching a high of A$76/tonne during the last fortnight. Currently there is a positive basis of A$66/tonne. To put this into perspective, at the same time last year the basis was positive A$37/tonne and in 2012 it was negative $A5/tonne.
With the basis at such a high level it would seem there is significantly more downside risk in the domestic market than there is upside potential. Consequently prudent marketers are selling good quality wheat now.
Currently the CBOT December 2014 Wheat Futures price is A$233/tonne equivalent and the APW Multigrade price is $299/t delivered port, reflecting a positive basis of A$66/tonne.