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Grain Market Update – Canola (November 2018)

The following graph shows the movement in ICE November 2018 Canola Futures and the domestic canola price delivered Port Kembla.

The new crop canola price delivered port has increased steadily since January 2018, until late October when it declined. Since May, the basis has increased from neutral to a peak of A$146/tonne equivalent in late October, as drought conditions in Australia worsened.

At present the ICE November Futures price is A$508/tonne equivalent and the domestic price is $650/tonne delivered port.

The resultant basis of A$142/tonne equivalent is approximately $97/tonne ahead of the basis at the same time last year.

The domestic canola price at present is  A$78/tonne above the Decile 9 price, calculated on prices from 2009 to date.

A PKE price of $650/tonne represents $612/tonne local depot with freight to port of $38/tonne. Although this is a very robust price, it is unlikely to allow growers to break even given the low yielding droughted crops.