The following graph shows the movement in Chicago (CBOT) December 2017 Wheat Futures price and the 2017/18 APW Multigrade price delivered port.
Since early January, both the futures and domestic price have remained flat with the basis at or close to zero. Since early June however, the basis has increased, leading to domestic prices improving significantly.
Currently the CBOT December 2017 Wheat Futures price is A$247/tonne equivalent and the APW Multigrade price is $280/tonne are delivered port, reflecting a positive basis of A$33/tonne. This compares with a basis of A$22/tonne at this time in 2016.
The domestic price at present is approximately a Decile 5 price, calculated on prices from 2009 to date. Current prices less than Decile 5 provide little incentive to make forward sales. However those in the habit of making forward sales, should monitor the basis for opportunities to commence their selling programme.
Assuming freight to port of $38/tonne, the present Multigrade price represents $242/tonne local depot. This compares with the average budgeted Break Even Price for clients in 2017 of $171/tonne and $145/tonne for the top 20%.