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Grain Market Update – Canola (November 2017)

The following graph shows the movement in ICE November 2017 Canola Futures and the domestic canola price delivered Port Kembla.

ICE futures have continued to strengthen since August, plus the basis has also improved during this period. At present the basis is approximately plus A$45/tonne equivalent which is a similar figure to that of the same time last year. Currently the domestic price delivered Port Kembla is $573/tonne.

The domestic canola price at present is a Decile 9 price, calculated on prices from 2009 to date. This suggests that there is little upside in prices, providing a strong incentive to sell canola.

A PKE price of $573/tonne represents $535/tonne local depot with freight to port of $38/tonne. The average budgeted Break Even Price for clients in 2017 is $395/tonne, while that for the top 20% is $325/tonne, at Decile 5 yields.